Bitcoin

Technical Analysis

Daily Time Frame

As mentioned in our previous analysis, Bitcoin’s price has been experiencing a substantial bear market, forming a descending price channel. However, the $19K level has put an end to the bearish expansion move and has supported the price.

The 100-day moving average is one of the most crucial levels for Bitcoin. It can be interpreted as a resistance or support for the price, whether above or below the MA. During the recent significant shakeout, the price fell below this effective moving average and has now retraced to the broken level at roughly $24K. If Bitcoin succeeds in breaking this level, a climb to the $30K resistance region will be the most probable scenario on the table. Contrarily, another leg down will occur if the price fails to break the substantial resistance.

4-Hour Time Frame

After experiencing a bearish expansion decline, the price has formed a well-known classic price action pattern called a wedge. The price endeavored to break the upper threshold twice. Although, it failed to surpass the wedge’s upper level and is negligibly plunging.

Nonetheless, a transparent double-top price action pattern(a recognized reversal pattern) can be determined in Bitcoin’s 4-hour timeframe chart. Considering the double top pattern, Bitcoin seems conceivable to undergo another shakeout to retest the $19K. If the $19K vital support level fails to hold the price, Bitcoin’s next destination will be the $16K mark.

Onchain Analysis

BCDD(Binary Coin Days Destroyed)

The market seems to be looking for trends, but big hands are remaining still. Examining their behavior usually helps identify the current trends. This conduct is demonstrated on the following Binary CDD metric(365-day exponential moving average) chart.

Binary Coin Days Destroyed is a binary value that points to ‘1’ if the Supply Adjusted Coin Days Destroyed is larger than the average Supply Adjusted Coin Days Destroyed, and points to ‘0’ if not. It exhibits whether long-term holders’ movements are higher or lower than average. 

Historically, the metric surged during the bullish rallies and marked a long-term pivot at the end of the bull market. Conversely, it cascades during bear markets and registers a bottom at the end of the bearish rallies. Currently, the metric has experienced a massive shakeout indicating that the long-term holders are relatively unmoving and still.

However, considering the prior bear markets, there is still room for the price to decline and reach lower levels. Therefore, given the market’s present turbulence and uncertainty, as well as the current state of the global economy’s recession, another leg down will be possible before the next bullish rally.