Crypto Market Analysis (13-August-2022)


Technical analysis

Bitcoin price, after the euphoria since the release of the CPI, has returned to equilibrium; although the bulls appear to have a bit of the upper hand, it is not entirely clear. The price is still being maintained in the channel and has not broken through 25K yet. Perhaps the big players or market makers are deliberately holding back to keep accumulating more coins.

BTC Daily Aug13

By observing The Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) at three significant exchanges (Binance, Coinbase, and Bitfinex), I have all noticed a decline in cumulative volume. The most impressive Cumulative Volume Delta was shown on Bitfinex when the Bitcoin price dumped to 17.6K. Then came the high cumulative volume on Coinbase in early July, and the high CVD on Binance came in mid-July.

BTC Onchain Aug 13

Since the end of July, although there have been short-term price increases, CVD has been decreasing more and more on three major exchanges. This indicator can prove the cash flow has not yet rushed into the market intensely. It is understandable because a slight decrease in CPI is not concrete evidence to ensure that the world economy is on the way to recovery.

Onchain analysis

I use Taker Buy/Sell Ratio data combined with the Exponential Moving Averages to observe the crossovers in buying or selling pressure areas; I also noticed the buying pressure decreasing, which is staying at the median in recent days.


The second data is aSOPR. Adjusted Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) is a ratio of spent outputs (lived more than an hour) in profit at the time of the window. It is calculated as the USD value of spent outputs at the time (realized value) divided by the USD value of spent outputs at the created time(value at creation). The crossovers of the 1- and 2-month moving averages show a short-term bullish bias. However, as long as these lines remain below 1, there is no guarantee that the price will continuously stay at high levels. There is still a big gap to make sure that Bitcoin will recover.


The third on-chain data is LTH-SOPR, shown two weeks ago; this data was smoothed by a 155-day moving average that fell below 1 for the first time, making me wonder if history will repeat itself as it did two cycles ago. When this data was lower than 1, there were the last bottom tests in previous cycles. The question is whether long-term holders can maintain their loss; what if they lack the capital to accumulate more?

Long term holder SOPR 7D+30D+155D - Capitulation

Conclusion: This is difficult to identify the trend clearly; the price may continue to move sideways and keeps the volatility in the current price channel with smaller amplitudes; the support level remains from 22.4K to 22.7K. If the retailers actively buy more, the nearest resistance level will be between 26-28K.

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I am Binh Dang, a verified author, on-chain analysis, and Vietnam community manager at My Twitter Account: