General situation of financial markets
All financial markets are developing patterns that are usually associated with breakdowns.
Given the correlation between the Bitcoin market and the stock market, it is essential to examine the state of the US stock market. A look at the financial market chart shows that most financial markets are developing bearish patterns. As you can see in Chart 1, the NDX seems to be forming a bearish pennant pattern. Chart 2 also shows the SPX. A bearish flag pattern can also be seen on the SPX chart.
Considering the existing correlation between the stock market and Bitcoin, it can be seen simultaneously that Bitcoin is also developing a bearish flag pattern. If a pattern breakdown accompanies other financial markets, Bitcoin will probably break down the flag pattern.
Although chart 3 is part of Bitcoin technical analysis, other things can be added to it:
Bitcoin once again respected the resistance line it has respected many times. The break-up of this trend line will be significant to confirm the possibility of the start of an uptrend. (Chart 4).
Chart 5 shows the Renko chart of bitcoin. BTC respected the moving average of 40 bricks. If Bitcoin reaches the brick price level of $20,900, it re-enters the swing area again. In this case, the recent price rise should be considered a potential upthrust, and there is a possibility of further price reduction and breakdown of the pattern.
The analysis of miners, whales, and banks is the continuation of the downward trend:
Bank Supply Ratio is calculated as the bank reserve divided by the total supply. As Chart 6 shows, this metric is decreasing. This shows the decrease in Bitcoin reserves of banks. The reason for this issue can be the banks’ lack of support for the price increase or their prediction of the price decrease.
The exchange Whale ratio is the ratio of the top 10 inflows to the total inflows of the exchange. As you can see in Chart 7, this indicator is increasing, indicating increased selling pressure by whales. Miners also predict a further price drop. Chart 8 shows the Miners’ Position Index (MPI). Miners’ Position Index (MPI) is the ratio of total miner outflow (USD) to its one-year moving average of total miner outflow (USD). As you can see in chart 8, in the current fluctuation range, the price increase was accompanied by an increase in the sale of Bitcoin by miners.
Based on the analysis, Bitcoin is in a range of volatility. Considering the behavior of other markets, there is a possibility that the downtrend will continue after the end of the fluctuation. But to enter the trade, it is better to wait for the pattern’s breakout.